I've been looking into the impact of heat, humidity, and solar radiation on running times, but most data is on actual race results. See this example of research. For calculations see this example.

Are the calculations biased by data from actual races since effort levels are generally higher during a race? How much so? Some research on the central governor theory, or other effort related exercise research which I can't remember the source for, actually got professional athletes to perform equally under a higher heat index.

What I want this theory for is to track training, predict performance, and compare fitness level under different weather conditions.I find the actual calculations to be a little conservative and would like to improve them with a simple rule of thumb.

  • possible duplicate of Whats the ideal temperature for running in high humidity? Sep 10, 2015 at 22:18
  • @brentwpeterson These aren't duplicates. In this one Im looking for more a training version of the theories I linked to, and in the other question Im looking for the temperature that is ideal for running in high humidity like the 60F ideal temperature stated by many different sources.
    – Jason
    Sep 11, 2015 at 1:05

1 Answer 1


There isn't currently an integrated theory such as you discuss. I would recommend reading The Lore of Running for a long discussion of the impact of various conditions on running times.

  • Its disappointing there is not much out there on this kind of stuff. Maybe after years of Garmin, Strava, and Endomondo collecting data some PhD student can get on it :)
    – Jason
    Sep 7, 2015 at 23:10

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